If there is one thing that stands out from the rest of NASA space agency is in exploration by unmanned probes. The NASA has managed to launch in recent twenty years a fleet of ships has been studied, or is about to do, almost every corner of the Solar System. But this success has a price. Complex probes like Cassini are extremely expensive, so you have to prioritize the objectives to study from now. What are the missions to be launched by NASA in the next decade? Will it maintain its position as North American agency leader in the exploration of the Solar System?
JEO mission (Jupiter-Europa Mission) threatens to monopolize the entire budget for NASA spacecraft in the next decade (NASA).
To answer this question has been created Decadal Survey, a study in collaboration with the scientific community through the National Research Council which aims to establish priorities within the Solar System exploration. The results of the Decadal Survey are not binding-that is, NASA can choose other priorities in their opinion, "but obviously have an enormous weight to the choice of which should be the next mission of the agency.
To understand how the process of recommendations should be borne in mind that NASA missions are divided into three classes according of the cost. The most expensive are the Flagship missions type, with a peak of 2500 million U.S. dollars (adjusted for expected inflation, 2015). Given the cost and complexity, NASA can only afford to launch one or two such missions per decade (Cassini is an archetypal example of Flagship mission.) We follow the New Frontiers missions , with a maximum of one billion dollars , simple and numerous. And finally we have the program Discovery, with a maximum of $ 500 million mission. Because of its low price, the Decadal Survey is not within the referral process Type of Discovery missions, focusing on the Flagship and New Frontiers.
minor bodies in the solar system are a priority of the study (Emily Lakdawalla / NASA).
And what are the conclusions of the study? As input are not very hopeful , as the report points out that NASA only have money to carry out a fraction of the tasks provided . The budget for FY 2011 was tentatively generous in the section on space probes, but remember that this budget has not been approved yet. Worse, it appears that the budget for 2012 and 2013 is lower than the current. This may seem reasonable given that we are in a global economic crisis, but do not forget that NASA retires the space shuttle this year and recently canceled the expensive Constellation Program to return to the moon, actions that would theoretically allow more money to spend for automatic exploration of other worlds.
Therefore, it is likely that NASA can only launch a flagship-type complex mission in the next decade . What to choose? The report presents the list in order of scientific priority:
Mars is a priority (NASA).
Rover MAX-C (Decadal Survey / NASA).
Rover simplified MAX-C (Decadal Survey / NASA).
JEO (Decadal Survey / NASA).
Is there an ocean there? (NASA).
Heat Map some Galilean satellites (NASA).
Uranus Orbiter with chemical propulsion (Decadal Survey / NASA).
Uranus Orbiter with electric propulsion (Decadal Survey / NASA).
Climate Venus Mission (Decadal Survey / NASA).
Venus's atmosphere is still a mystery (NASA).
Enceladus Orbiter (Decadal Survey / NASA).
Geysers of Enceladus: priority (NASA .)
Examining this list of priorities are obvious two points worthy of comment. The first is the striking preference for MAX-C compared to JEO, until now the darling of the NASA mission. The scientific community continues to believe that Mars is the priority within the solar system and go with fear as JEO will gobble up the bulk of resources over the next ten years . If JEO not simplify and reduce the enormous cost of 4700 million dollars, all the exploration program at NASA may be jeopardized. The problem is that the agency has only enough money to choose a Flagship mission, MAX-C or JEO. Faced with this dilemma, given the sorry state of the budget NASA, the possible cancellation of JEO (at least as Flagship mission) in the near future at the moment does not seem so farfetched an idea. Other missions, such as Enceladus Orbiter or VCM, could be simplified and approved within the category of New Frontiers. However, apparently seen, I fear we will not see a probe to Uranus or Titan by 2030.
Decadal Survey recommendation to the NASA budget. Notice how the actual budget (black line) is clearly insufficient (NASA).
Recommendation expenses in the event it is impossible to get a budget increase. JEO mission does not appear anywhere! (NASA).
The report also prioritizes the exploration of Mars not only by the MAX-C, but with a whole set of missions whose ultimate goal should be to bring to Earth samples of Martian rock groups for detailed study. Indeed, one of the objectives of MAX-C consist of capture and store samples of rock that would later (in 2024) collected by another mission, the Mars Sample Return Lander (MSRL) . The MSRL include a small rover to collect samples of the MAX-C, also a solid fuel rocket charge of placing the rocks in Mars orbit. Later, another mission, called Mars Sample Return Orbiter (MSRO) - pick up in orbit and send samples to Earth, where they would land in a capsule without a parachute-like system used by the Russian probe Phobos-Grunt. This modular approach would ensure the return of Martian samples to Earth even if a mission fails. Curiosity and MAVEN addition, the mission Mars Orbiter Trace Gas, conducted jointly with the ESA, it is also one of the priorities of the report.
Mars Exploration Program in 2020-2025 according to NASA (NASA).
MSRL Mission (Decadal Survey / NASA).
MSRO Mission (Decadal Survey / NASA).
Another concern is the limited reserves of plutonium-238. In this context the report is unequivocal: or resume plutonium production right now, or NASA must waive the outer solar system exploration in the coming decades . Also recommended that JEO use less plutonium than expected in order to keep stocks at optimal levels. On the other hand, the study notes as a priority a series of missions within the New Frontiers class or, if possible, Discovery:
Comet Surface Sample Return (Decadal Survey / NASA).
Titan-Saturn System Mission (Decadal Survey / NASA).
atmosphere of Titan's complex and inside (NASA).
lakes and seas on Titan will have to wait (NASA).
Saturn Probe (Decadal Survey / NASA).
Trojan Tour Rendezvous (Decadal Survey / NASA).
volcanic activity on Io as seen by New Horizons (NASA).
Io Observer (Decadal Survey / NASA).
Lunar Geophysical Network (Decadal Survey / NASA).
According to Decadal Survey, NASA should select the next decade New Frontiers four missions from the following: Comet Surface Sample Return, Trojan Tour and Rendezvous, Lunar South Pole-Aitken Basin Sample Return, Saturn Probe and Venus In Situ Explorer. And if finally there is money to fifth New Frontiers mission, candidates would be Io Observer or the Lunar Geophysical Network.
Ultimately, if nothing remedied in the next decade we will consider a significant reduction in the number of complex spacecraft. We have said many times on this blog that the cancellation of the Constellation Program is not would mean a significant increase in the number of unmanned missions. The findings of the Decadal Survey further strengthen this thesis, making clear that the NASA budget is clearly insufficient to carry out a systematic exploration of the solar system using large probes. Is this the beginning of the decline of the leadership of NASA's Solar System exploration?
More information:
JEO mission (Jupiter-Europa Mission) threatens to monopolize the entire budget for NASA spacecraft in the next decade (NASA).
To answer this question has been created Decadal Survey, a study in collaboration with the scientific community through the National Research Council which aims to establish priorities within the Solar System exploration. The results of the Decadal Survey are not binding-that is, NASA can choose other priorities in their opinion, "but obviously have an enormous weight to the choice of which should be the next mission of the agency.
To understand how the process of recommendations should be borne in mind that NASA missions are divided into three classes according of the cost. The most expensive are the Flagship missions type, with a peak of 2500 million U.S. dollars (adjusted for expected inflation, 2015). Given the cost and complexity, NASA can only afford to launch one or two such missions per decade (Cassini is an archetypal example of Flagship mission.) We follow the New Frontiers missions , with a maximum of one billion dollars , simple and numerous. And finally we have the program Discovery, with a maximum of $ 500 million mission. Because of its low price, the Decadal Survey is not within the referral process Type of Discovery missions, focusing on the Flagship and New Frontiers.
minor bodies in the solar system are a priority of the study (Emily Lakdawalla / NASA).
And what are the conclusions of the study? As input are not very hopeful , as the report points out that NASA only have money to carry out a fraction of the tasks provided . The budget for FY 2011 was tentatively generous in the section on space probes, but remember that this budget has not been approved yet. Worse, it appears that the budget for 2012 and 2013 is lower than the current. This may seem reasonable given that we are in a global economic crisis, but do not forget that NASA retires the space shuttle this year and recently canceled the expensive Constellation Program to return to the moon, actions that would theoretically allow more money to spend for automatic exploration of other worlds.
Therefore, it is likely that NASA can only launch a flagship-type complex mission in the next decade . What to choose? The report presents the list in order of scientific priority:
- MAX-C (Mars Astrobiology Explorer) : an Exploration Rover on the surface of Mars that employ more of the technologies developed for MSL mission Curiosity, such as the Sky Crane landing system. Unlike Curiosity, MAX-C is devoted to study Mars from the standpoint of astrobiology, seeking evidence, past or present, of the existence of life on Mars. MAX-C should have a launch mass of 4457 kg and should take off in 2018 by an Atlas V rocket NASA estimates that MAX-C will cost about 3500 million dollars, so the study recommends simpler to stay within the limit of 2500 million.
Mars is a priority (NASA).
Rover MAX-C (Decadal Survey / NASA).
Rover simplified MAX-C (Decadal Survey / NASA).
- JEO (Jupiter-Europa Explorer) : so far, this was the Flagship mission selected by NASA to star in the next decade. JEO is a craft that must be studied, particularly Jupiter and its moon, Europa. The main objective is to determine radar using the presence of ocean of water that is believed to exist under thin crust of ice on the moon. If the European Space Agency (ESA) spacecraft finally brings Laplace / AGM (Jupiter-Ganymede Orbiter), both vehicles would form a joint mission Europa-Jupiter System Mission (EJSM). The problem is that JEO has far exceeded the initial budget and stipulates that end out to the tune of 4700 million U.S. dollars (!!!), endangering all exploration program at NASA. The report of the Decadal Survey recommended that JEO be simplified ( topping) to the maximum to achieve the maximum budget of 2500 million. JEO will have a launch mass of 4745 kg and should take off in 2020 with an Atlas V, but not reach Jupiter until 2025 (!!).
JEO (Decadal Survey / NASA).
Is there an ocean there? (NASA).
Heat Map some Galilean satellites (NASA).
- Uranus Orbiter probe atmospheric : Jupiter and Saturn have been and are being studied by a multitude of sensors (the next Juno will ), but ice giants Uranus and Neptune are still a mystery to scientists since the Voyager 2 will visit briefly in 1986 and 1989. Both planets differ significantly from their older brothers, both internal composition and history. In addition, we now know that most exoplanets are large gas giants like Jupiter or Saturn, but ice giants like Uranus. UOP (Uranus Orbiter and Probe) would have a mass of about 4-5 tons and should also take off in 2020. Apart from exploring the Uranian satellite system, the ship would incorporate a subsonda to study the atmosphere the world (very similar to that used by the Galileo mission). The report includes two options, one mission to another with electric propulsion and chemical propulsion. The estimated cost of UOP is 2700 million, very close to the limit for a Flagship mission, although it is true that this is a project that has not passed the preliminary study (which in plain language means that this estimate is not very credible).
Uranus Orbiter with chemical propulsion (Decadal Survey / NASA).
Uranus Orbiter with electric propulsion (Decadal Survey / NASA).
- VCM (Venus Climate Mission) : Venus is the great outsider of planetary exploration. In the final analysis, the public does not feel very attracted to a world with a surface temperature of 500 ยบ C and 90 atmospheres of pressure. But the truth is that it is a key objective for the scientific community, as initially understand how a planet so similar to Earth turned out to be different is one of the great enigmas of planetary science today. MCV would have a mass of 3984 kg and incorporate a probe EFL (Entry Flight System) with balloons and / or surface vehicles if the budget allows. Your date launch is yet to be determined (although due to the proximity of Venus, this data is not a priority). VCM's budget is estimated at 2400 million dollars.
Climate Venus Mission (Decadal Survey / NASA).
Venus's atmosphere is still a mystery (NASA).
- Orbiter Enceladus: Saturn's moon Enceladus has emerged as one of the worlds most interesting of the Solar System. Despite being much smaller than Europe, has a cryovolcanic remarkable activity in the form of spectacular geysers of ice and water. Clearly this is one of the priorities for Humanity. This probe would have a mass of 3560 kg and would be launched in 2023 by an Atlas V. One advantage of this mission would be its low cost, estimated "only" in 1900 million.
Enceladus Orbiter (Decadal Survey / NASA).
Geysers of Enceladus: priority (NASA .)
Examining this list of priorities are obvious two points worthy of comment. The first is the striking preference for MAX-C compared to JEO, until now the darling of the NASA mission. The scientific community continues to believe that Mars is the priority within the solar system and go with fear as JEO will gobble up the bulk of resources over the next ten years . If JEO not simplify and reduce the enormous cost of 4700 million dollars, all the exploration program at NASA may be jeopardized. The problem is that the agency has only enough money to choose a Flagship mission, MAX-C or JEO. Faced with this dilemma, given the sorry state of the budget NASA, the possible cancellation of JEO (at least as Flagship mission) in the near future at the moment does not seem so farfetched an idea. Other missions, such as Enceladus Orbiter or VCM, could be simplified and approved within the category of New Frontiers. However, apparently seen, I fear we will not see a probe to Uranus or Titan by 2030.
Decadal Survey recommendation to the NASA budget. Notice how the actual budget (black line) is clearly insufficient (NASA).
Recommendation expenses in the event it is impossible to get a budget increase. JEO mission does not appear anywhere! (NASA).
The report also prioritizes the exploration of Mars not only by the MAX-C, but with a whole set of missions whose ultimate goal should be to bring to Earth samples of Martian rock groups for detailed study. Indeed, one of the objectives of MAX-C consist of capture and store samples of rock that would later (in 2024) collected by another mission, the Mars Sample Return Lander (MSRL) . The MSRL include a small rover to collect samples of the MAX-C, also a solid fuel rocket charge of placing the rocks in Mars orbit. Later, another mission, called Mars Sample Return Orbiter (MSRO) - pick up in orbit and send samples to Earth, where they would land in a capsule without a parachute-like system used by the Russian probe Phobos-Grunt. This modular approach would ensure the return of Martian samples to Earth even if a mission fails. Curiosity and MAVEN addition, the mission Mars Orbiter Trace Gas, conducted jointly with the ESA, it is also one of the priorities of the report.
Mars Exploration Program in 2020-2025 according to NASA (NASA).
MSRL Mission (Decadal Survey / NASA).
MSRO Mission (Decadal Survey / NASA).
Another concern is the limited reserves of plutonium-238. In this context the report is unequivocal: or resume plutonium production right now, or NASA must waive the outer solar system exploration in the coming decades . Also recommended that JEO use less plutonium than expected in order to keep stocks at optimal levels. On the other hand, the study notes as a priority a series of missions within the New Frontiers class or, if possible, Discovery:
- Comet Surface Sample Return : the exploration of comets is still a priority for NASA, because they contain clues to the formation and evolution of the Solar System. Although there have been sent to Earth samples of the coma of a comet (Stardust) and in the future we will study in detail one of these bodies (Rosetta), the analysis of samples from the surface of a comet nucleus would be a great scientific achievement.
Comet Surface Sample Return (Decadal Survey / NASA).
- Titan Saturn System Mission (TSSM) : many people may be wondering now, what about Titan? Titan is possibly the world's most fascinating solar system along with Mars and Earth, yet the report does not recommend a mission to Titan. The blame for this "forgetting" what has the Cassini spacecraft. Despite the attractiveness of the lakes and seas of methane on Titan, and there is now a mission to orbit Saturn. For this reason it is very difficult to justify the following type probe NASA's Flagship has also Saturn as a destination. Unlike Enceladus, a probe for the study of Titan should be much more complex and expensive. Nevertheless, the report recognizes the enormous importance of this objective.
Titan-Saturn System Mission (Decadal Survey / NASA).
atmosphere of Titan's complex and inside (NASA).
lakes and seas on Titan will have to wait (NASA).
- Saturn Probe: this would be such a small probe Galileo to study the atmospheric profile of Saturn. Although Saturn's internal structure is very similar to Jupiter, excessive internal heat, apparently caused by the precipitation of helium and other features make the study of Saturn in a priority for understanding the formation of gas giants. This probe would have a mass of 957 kg and could be launched in 2027.
Saturn Probe (Decadal Survey / NASA).
- Tour and Rendezvous Trojan: Trojan asteroids are those that are on the Lagrangian points L5 and L6 of the Jupiter-Sun system. They are supposed relics of the solar system's formation and its exploration would be very interesting. To be relatively close to each other at these points of equilibrium, a probe could explore various objects without having to perform complex maneuvers. The probe would have a mass of 1176 kg and could take off in 2019.
Trojan Tour Rendezvous (Decadal Survey / NASA).
volcanic activity on Io as seen by New Horizons (NASA).
- Observer Io: Io, Jupiter's moon, who needs no introduction: it is the most volcanically active world in the Solar System. Naturally, this makes it a priority, although the radiation belts of Jupiter greatly complicate the development of a mission of this kind.
Io Observer (Decadal Survey / NASA).
- Lunar South Pole-Aitken Basin Sample Return : as its name suggests, is a probe to collect samples of the impact basin South Pole-Aitken, most of the Moon.
- VISE (Venus In Situ Explorer) : simplified mission to study Venus.
- Lunar Geophysical Network: If you thought you already knew all about the moon, you're wrong. There is still some controversy about the interior structure of our satellite. A network of small probes on the lunar surface could determine precisely the characteristics of the Moon's interior.
Lunar Geophysical Network (Decadal Survey / NASA).
According to Decadal Survey, NASA should select the next decade New Frontiers four missions from the following: Comet Surface Sample Return, Trojan Tour and Rendezvous, Lunar South Pole-Aitken Basin Sample Return, Saturn Probe and Venus In Situ Explorer. And if finally there is money to fifth New Frontiers mission, candidates would be Io Observer or the Lunar Geophysical Network.
Ultimately, if nothing remedied in the next decade we will consider a significant reduction in the number of complex spacecraft. We have said many times on this blog that the cancellation of the Constellation Program is not would mean a significant increase in the number of unmanned missions. The findings of the Decadal Survey further strengthen this thesis, making clear that the NASA budget is clearly insufficient to carry out a systematic exploration of the solar system using large probes. Is this the beginning of the decline of the leadership of NASA's Solar System exploration?
More information:
- and Voyages Vision for Planetary Science in the Decade 2013-2022 : final report of the Decadal Survey of the National Research Council.
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